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The papers in this special issue measure the pace of change and the employment consequences of rapid ongoing transformation of Sub-Saharan Africa’s agri-food system. After quantitatively assessing the pace of change in consumer diets, a succession of papers examines the resulting change in public health, employment structure, job skill requirements and the educational challenges facing agricultural education and training (AET) institutions charged with preparing African youth with workforce skill required to succeed in the continent’s rapidly changing, rapidly growing agri-food system. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

Changes in consumer demand and workforce skill needs emerge from a quantitative projection model using Living Standards Measurement Studies in half a dozen countries in Eastern and Southern Africa. Based on surveys of employers, graduates and staff at AET institutions in a range of 14 different countries, the analyses evaluate the workforce skill needs and educational challenges for preparing Africa’s emerging youth bulge to seek productive careers on the farm and in post-farm segments of the agri-food system. Throughout, the papers contrast findings from countries at different stages in the food system transformation using a typology developed in this paper.

The concluding paper in this issue by Kabasa, Kirsten and Minde summarizes key findings emerging from this collection.

The contributions in this special issue report original research based on analysis of LSMS data and on interviews with agri-food system employers, agricultural education institutions and professionals in over a dozen African countries.

The purpose of this paper is to look forward to explore the links between projected rapid rates of agribusiness expansion and Africa's economic growth, equity and spatial development.

The paper draws inferences from 30 years of agribusiness value chain research in Africa.

Africa's agribusinesses stand poised for exceptionally rapid growth over the coming 40 years. Because of strong interdependencies between agribusiness and agriculture, productivity growth in agribusiness systems will critically affect Africa's overall economic growth rate, its spatial development patterns and progress toward poverty reduction. But the necessary efficiency gains in agribusiness performance will not appear automatically. They will require substantial private investments, a competitive private sector and heightened public attention in areas where governments have historically proven weak: promoting regional trade, improving town and regional planning, financing scientific research, funding higher education and building commercially viable rural financial systems.

Researchers can help by assembling empirical evidence in these topic areas and by examining value chain models that stimulate private sector investment, accelerate efficiency gains and facilitate access and egress by the poor.

Drawing on 30 years of value chain research in Africa, the paper examines links between agribusiness trajectories and economic growth, equity and spatial development.

The purpose of this paper is to understand how the unfolding diet transformation in East and Southern Africa is likely to influence the evolution of employment within its agrifood system (AFS) and between that system and the rest of the economy. To briefly consider implications for education and skill acquisition.

The authors link changing diets to employment structure. The authors then use alternative projections of diet change over 15- and 30-year intervals to develop scenarios on changes in employment structure.

As long as incomes in ESA continue to rise at levels near those of the past decade, the transformation of their economies is likely to advance dramatically. Key features will be: sharp decline in the share of the workforce engaged in farming even as absolute numbers rise modestly, sharp increase in the share engaged in non-farm segments of the AFS, and an even sharper increase in the share engaged outside the AFS. Within the AFS, food preparation away from home is likely to grow most rapidly, followed by food manufacturing, and finally by marketing, transport, and other AFS services. Resource booms in Mozambique and (potentially) Tanzania are the main factor that may change this pattern.

Clarifying policy implications requires renewed research given the rapid changes in Africa over the past 15 years.

This is the first paper to explicitly link changing diets to changing employment within the AFS.

African agri-food systems are undergoing major structural change in response to growing urbanization, rising incomes and shifting patterns of food consumption. The purpose of this paper is to explore four major dimensions of this surprisingly rapid structural shift in African food systems.

This chapter synthesizes the six chapters and in addition discusses future implications for agricultural education and training (AET) in Africa.

AET institutions face multiple pressures as a result of these ongoing changes. High fertility rates have produced a youth bulge that currently strains educational capacity at all levels and places huge pressures accommodating 700 million youth job market entrants over the coming 30 years.

Countries vary considerably in a number of socio-economic and political dimensions making it difficult to completely generalize on each and every issue. Cross-country comparison to the level of determining which country is better than the other in many of the variables is difficult.

Synthesis of key parameters to consider in increasing the relevance of AET institutions in Africa.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the career trajectories of 66 distinguished African agricultural professionals in order to explore how agricultural education and training (AET) institutions can better motivate and prepare youth for productive careers in Africa’s rapidly changing agrifood system.

Based on in-depth qualitative interviews with these role models, the paper explores the answers to two critical questions: How can Africa motivate its youth to consider careers in agriculture and agribusiness? How can AET institutions better prepare youth for productive careers in agribusiness?

Rural youth enter agribusiness careers in response to clearly perceived rural needs coupled with demonstrable profitability of modern agricultural and agribusiness opportunities. In contrast, urban youth embark on agricultural career paths in response to inspiring science education, particularly practical applications in biology, coupled with emerging awareness of the range of professional opportunities afforded by modern agribusiness and commercial agriculture.

The study relies on the basic premise that seasoned, successful professionals – from the private and public sector – can offer useful insights into ways of improving job preparation training for the youth of today seeking careers in the food system of tomorrow. The approach assumes that the role models have both the practical experience and forward-looking vision necessary to identify key elements of preparation likely to benefit future job market entrants.

This paper relies on primary interviews with distinguished agricultural professionals from 14 different African countries.

Cassava production surged noticeably in Southeastern Africa beginning in the 1990s. The purpose of this paper is to examine the commercial responses and food security consequences of cassava production growth in the region.

The paper incorporates a mix of quantitative analysis, based primarily on original analysis of national farm household survey data, together with key informant interviews with value chain participants in the three neighboring countries of Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia.

In the cassava production zones, cassava's high productivity translates into per kilogram carbohydrate costs 60 per cent to 70 per cent of the cost of cereals such as maize and wheat, thereby opening up a range of profitable opportunities for commercialization of cassava‐based foods, feeds and industrial products. Despite this potential, cassava commercialization in Southeastern Africa remains in its formative stages, with only 10 per cent to 30 per cent of production currently marketed. Unlike West Africa, where cassava commercialization has centered on marketing prepared cassava‐based convenience foods, the emerging cassava markets in Southeastern Africa have centered on fresh cassava, low value‐added cassava flour, and experiments in industrial processing of cassava‐based starches, biofuels and feeds. Strategic investment in a set of key public goods (breeding, training in food sciences and food safety, and research on in‐ground cassava storage) can help to shape this transition in ways that benefit both commercial interests and the food security of vulnerable households.

The paper compares cassava commercialization across differing agro‐climatic zones, policy environments and food staple zones.

Agricultural education and training (AET) institutions will play a strategic role in helping to prepare Africa’s rapidly growing youth populations for productive careers in agriculture and related agri-businesses. The purpose of this paper is to examine the magnitude of skills and youth employment needs emanating from high-population growth rates. It then explores how agricultural education institutions are responding to these challenges in four different countries at different levels of food system development: South Africa tier 1, Tanzania in tier 2 and Malawi and Uganda in tier 3.

Demographic and school enrollment data provide information on the magnitude of job market entrants at different levels of education while Living Standards Measurement Studies in the respective countries provide a snapshot of current skill requirements in different segments of the agri-food system. In order to evaluate AET responses, the authors have conducted country-level reviews of AET systems as well as in-depth assessments at key tertiary AET institutions in each of the four case study countries.

Growth rates in primary school enrollments are high in sub-Saharan Africa. At the same time, because of budgetary constraints, transition rates decline rapidly – about 40 percent from primary to secondary and 7 percent from secondary to tertiary. As a result, substantial numbers of primary and secondary school graduates seek jobs.

The case study countries are limited to four. Had more financial resources and time been available, researchers could have spread further afield and in so doing increasing the precision of the results.

Estimation of the number of primary and secondary school leavers seeking employment because of failure to proceed to the next level of education. Estimation of the level of education shares in the various components of the agri-food system.

Smallholder value chains are dynamic, changing over time in sudden, unpredictable ways as they adapt to shocks. Understanding these dynamics and adaptation is essential for these chains to remain competitive in turbulent markets. Many guides to value chain development, though they focus welcome attention on snapshots of current structure and performance, pay limited attention to the dynamic forces affecting these chains or to adaptation. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

This paper develops an expanded conceptual framework to understand value chain performance based on the theory of complex adaptive systems. The framework combines seven common properties of complex systems: time, uncertainty, sensitivity to initial conditions, endogenous shocks, sudden change, interacting agents and adaptation.

The authors outline how the framework can be used to ask new research questions and analyze case studies in order to improve our understanding of the development of smallholder value chains and their capacity for adaptation.

The framework highlights the need for greater attention to value chain dynamics.

The framework offers a new perspective on the dynamics of smallholder value chains.

The decision by the Government of Kenya in 2013 to increase tax revenue by imposing excise duty of 50 percent on sorghum beer resulted in economic losses for smallholders, the brewery, and the government itself because it effectively killed the value chain. In 2015, the government reversed the policy decision and reduced excise duty to 10 percent. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of this policy decision on the value chain, adaptation by growers and the brewery, and the rationale for this policy change and its reversal.

The author analyzes this episode using a conceptual framework derived from complex adaptive systems, focusing on four properties of such systems: sudden, endogenous shocks, interacting agents, and adaptation.

The author shows how the nature of politics in Kenya exposed the value chain to endogenous shocks as the result of conflicts between interacting agents, where smallholder farmer organizations were important for successful adaptation. Conflicts between development and political objectives in neo-patrimonial states are sources of complexity and uncertainty in smallholder value chains.

Complex adaptive systems proved a useful framework to understand decision making by government and business actors in the value chain.

The paper applies a novel conceptual framework to the analysis of an important value chain in Kenya.